CIGS in a World of Reduced Subsidies and Economic Uncertainty

Published: January 03, 2012    Category: Advanced Materials Renewable Energy

The value proposition of thin-film PV is clear.  If it can be executed at a price point that is competitive with coal and natural gas, it provides a competitive more environmentally friendly though variable source of electricity. 

While the current PV landscape is dominated by an oversupply of crystalline PV cells (crystalline PV module prices have fallen by 50% over the past eighteen months), the longer-term outlook for thin-film PV, and CIGS in particular, provides a compelling argument for this technology to be a significant factor in the PV landscape. CIGS is attractive for several reasons:

• CIGS uses more than an order of magnitude less absorber than crystalline cells;

• CIGS lends itself to flexible modules and roll to roll processing techniques; and

• It is the only thin film technology that approaches the efficiency of crystalline cells. 

Any successful CIGS company will, however, have to be constantly innovating both to improve yields and aggressively cut manufacturing costs.  Data over the past several years shows that all PV technologies are on an aggressive cost curve, and any technology or company that cannot stay on that curve will be doomed to failure.  

Even though subsidies in the US and Europe may be diminishing, the commitment to subsidize solar energy in China may minimize the effect of reduced US and European government aid.  China recently increased its solar surcharge to support solar and other renewables from .004 CNY to .008 CNY per kWh.  China is committed to increasing their renewable energy portfolio to 15% by 2020.   While not all of this growth will be thin-film solar, it represents a significant market that will be subsidized to meet this goal, regardless of the economic fundamentals compared to available fossil fuels.

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